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Penelope Wise
Penny Wise but not Pound Foolish! But remember: I am not offering investment advice. My comments are just for your general information; I do not recommend investments, and you should take professional advice before entering any investment contract.
Penelope blogs on investment and financial services around the world: mainstream and alternative. Contact: penny@lowtax.net

03 May 2009
Time To Get Out Of Money?

What's a girl to do? Men don't give you things any more since they stopped getting their fat bonuses; that is unless you're lucky enough to have snared a Russian billionaire, and even those are in short supply nowadays.

I've saved up enough from the days of diamonds and roses though to invest it to get a reasonable income, the problem is, in what? You can forget about the banks, interest rates are so low I'd be down to having champagne only once a day. And hedge funds have turned into a black hole.

So let's try to be rational, and look at the economic background. Virtually every country there is has put itself alarmingly into hock, and it's not going to get any better for the foreseeable because unemployment is getting worse by the day, which means that government expenses go up while the tax take goes down. Itaque (you didn't know I could speak Latin, did you? I was quite a blue stocking when I were a lass): taxes are going to go up. Also there is going to be inflation.

That is actually good news for companies. Why? Well, silly, because they are going to be able to sit on their hands and wait for the real cost of wages to go down - wage-slaves aren't going to have any bargaining power for years to come because there aren't any other jobs out there to go to, so they're desperate to hold on to the ones they've got. And while their wages stay static, goods and services will cost more, meaning that companies will get to keep a higher proportion of their inflating incomes. So it all adds up to buying equities.

The only fly in that ointment is that, with economies flat or declining, companies may be over-provided with productive facilities. So, look either for companies in sectors which are more or less immune to the economic cycle, or service providers with low fixed costs and a flexible work-force. Business publishers would be an example of the former, and Internet brokerages an example of the latter.

You may object that taxation is going to hit businesses just as hard as ordinary folk; but I don't think so. Any country that increases its corporation tax rate is going to see an immediate exodus of companies to more favourable jurisdictions. In fact, companies are learning to do that even without tax increases. The UK's tax regime is now so unfavourable to companies with major international involvement that the steady trickle of deserting plcs is going to turn into a flood. The shares of Informa plc rose 14% last week when it announced it was going to become tax-resident in Switzerland.

Even worse is going to happen in the USA, from the tax-collector's perspective: the Democrats are fielding swathes of inimical corporate legislation, lightly disguised by a smoke-screen of anti-tax-haven propaganda, and they're about to get a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. The option for US companies to shelter much of their international income overseas is going to disappear in short order, leaving them with only one option - to quit. I will particularly look for US multinationals that have low exposure in the US itself, and back them to make the right, tax-saving choice. And then I'm going to order another six cases of Bolly.







Other recent entries in this blog:

08 March 2009
There's No Fool Like A Gold Fool
I saw on TV last week that a new kind of tupperware party is all the rage in California: ladies bring their old gold jewellery - or possibly in Beverley Hills their dinner services - have them assayed on the spot by a dealer's expert and get paid out with checks. Because of the high gold price, they seem to think it's manna from heaven. One lady was getting a check for five hundred bucks or so, and you could see that she'd be straight down to Macy's for another new pants-suit even flashier than the one she was wearing.

I don't know where to start. It reminds me of what they did in London in the second world war, when all the ornamental railings outside people's houses were melted down to make gun barrels. It seems the antithesis of civilization; and what about the men who gave these ladies the rings, baubles, necklaces and chains they so cavalierly throw away. Did they give their permission?

Apart from the moralising - perhaps I'm just jealous of anyone who has got so many gold rings they can afford to get rid of a pile of them - I can't think of a sillier way of throwing money away. The dealer must be laughing all the way to the bank; apparently he was giving a 30% discount on the market price. There were about a dozen ladies around the table on the TV clip - so if he paid out six thousand dollars he made himself a profit of two thousand five hundred and seventy one dollars, plus a free hot meal by the look of it. Not too bad for an evening's work, even with the price of gas as high as it is; and he didn't even have to wear a necktie.

When you buy a new gold ring - well, OK, when your next randy prospective husband-not-to-be buys you a gold ring - the price will be something like 50% to 100% higher than the cost of the materials to reflect the workmanship, the carrying cost for the shop, and profit for all concerned. Let's take 75% as a median and say that the swooning swain coughed up five thousand dollars for the ring. That means the gold was worth $2,857. Then you're going to sell it at the tupperware party for $1,999; let's be generous because of the easy arithmetic and say you get two Gs for it. You've actually lost 60% of the value of what you have sold.

I can't imagine myself selling any of the tiny store of precious objects I keep locked away in my bedroom: they mean too much to me; they're part of my history and so full of memories. And they're worth more every day, I remind myself, at present. But if I did have to sell them, surely I would do it on e-bay or I'd go to a specialist jewellery dealer, when I would get something closer to their true worth.

Oh well. Easy come, easy go, I suppose!


23 November 2008
Please Securitize Me
Reading last week about the 'alternative alternatives' investment sector - weather derivatives and so forth - it came to me that the markets are missing out on the biggest and most stable income flows of all, that's to say your salary and mine.

Right now the banks won't lend, stock markets are in terminal free fall, and most countries are going to go bust, so it's really hard for all those unemployed brokers and analysts to earn enough money to feed their Porsches and keep their lovers in cocaine. So here's my idea.

Let's say you're a Belgian dentist, with an income flow of a quarter of a million dollars a year (you're not a very good dentist) and you need extra cash to buy a new high-tech chair. You go to the dentists derivative agency and they rate your future income stream and bundle it with all the other Belgian dentists' income streams. Hey presto, there's a new security called Belgian Dentists A which can be bought, sold or traded.

You get an issuance fee of the present value of 1% of the forward income stream, say USD100,000, which buys your new chair and then some, and agree to pay 1.5% of your annual income to the broker for ever. The broker then sells Belgian Dentists A to the market, making his turn, and makes a market in it.

A whole industry has been invented overnight, with brokers, analysts, underwriters, traders, rating agencies, credit default swaps, you name it. You're home free, because you don't owe anybody anything. If you decide to go AWOL and grow tomatoes in Wales for a living then Belgian Dentists A will take a hit, but AIG will pick up the tab courtesy of the US Treasury.


Latest 25 entries from all other blogs:

14 June 2009
WHO Declares TIEA Pandemic

19 April 2009
A Penny For Your Thoughts

05 April 2009
Thank You, Gordon, Now Here's The Money For Your Bus Home

04 April 2009
A New Economic Order

23 March 2009
About Geese And Golden Eggs

22 March 2009
Asset protection, bearer shares and anonymity

19 February 2009
Time To Tax The Vegetarians!

15 February 2009
Better The Devil You Know!

03 February 2009
Orwell, You Were Wrong - But Only By 25 Years

18 January 2009
Break Out The Champagne! Bring On The Dancing Girls!

17 January 2009
How Do You Achieve The Lifestyle Of Complete Freedom Without Having The First Million In The Bank?

19 November 2008
You Don’t Know Until You Go!

09 November 2008
A Keynesian Vacancy The IMF Can't Fill

02 November 2008
You Can't Escape; Resistance is Futile

28 October 2008
Why the Financial Crisis Doesn't Really Matter

19 October 2008
Tax Harmonization Is Coming!

14 October 2008
The British Government’s ‘Ill Considered’ Use of Anti-Terrorist Financing Legislation against Iceland and the Wider Implications

12 October 2008
How To Commit Collective Financial Suicide

07 October 2008
How and Why You Should Buy Physical Gold Offshore

22 September 2008
Scam Busters: Second Citizenship and Passport

07 September 2008
EU Defeated By Bean-Counters

05 September 2008
Offshore Banking: Failure to Open a Bank Account

31 August 2008
A New Lord Of Taxation

29 August 2008
How to Avoid Envy by Keeping a Low Profile

21 August 2008
High Yield Offshore Investment Programs: Do They Exist?

See the Lowtax Network Blogs page for older entries.


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